Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7E 0x7e46…607e other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-5%) realized −$27 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 52% −$57
other 28% +$1
politics 9% +$14
world 8% +$31
sports 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 100% +33.3%
≤30d 2 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 100% +33.3%
≤90d 2 +40.9% +27.5% 100% 100% +33.3%
all 14 +13.5% +2.6% 64% 64% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 64% -11.7%
10% -7.2% 57% -20.2%
15% -16.1% 36% -27.9%
20% -24.4% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage175d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER - Map 2 Winner LAZER 86¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? Jan 28 $20 +$5 +24%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jan 28 $100 −$10 -10%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 28 $100 +$22 +22%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 12 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in January? Jan 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conferenc Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January Jan 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference o Jan 03 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press confe Jan 03 $14 +$30 +212%
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on Decembe Dec 30 $40 +$31 +76%
Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported? Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 40m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 46m
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER - Map 2 Winner BUY LAZER 86¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? SELL No 98¢ $25 145d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? SELL Yes 61¢ $90 145d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $122 145d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? SELL No 72¢ $9 161d
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 166d
Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in January? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 169d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 38¢ $5 170d
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press confe BUY No 32¢ $14 170d
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conferenc BUY Yes 79¢ $20 170d
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference o BUY Yes 62¢ $5 170d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 174d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 175d
Somalians who defrauded government to fund terrorists deported? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 175d
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Israel President events on Decembe BUY Yes 57¢ $40 175d
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? BUY No 79¢ $20 175d
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January BUY Yes 77¢ $68 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.90 · official $76.91 (match) · 30 history records