Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e45…5b61 crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$301,358 (-150%) realized −$300,050 · open −$1,308
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%91W / 83L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,140per market
Trades / day69.3pace
Fees−$510est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$35,538
sports 19% +$2,542
other 5% −$4,946
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.0% -25.8% 45% 45% -12.6%
≤30d 27 -29.4% -36.1% 37% 37% -36.5%
≤90d 174 -15.1% -23.2% 52% 47% -27.0%
all 174 -15.1% -23.2% 52% 47% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.2% 47% -27.0%
10% -30.6% 40% -34.0%
15% ← realistic here -37.3% 31% -40.4%
20% -43.4% 25% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,447) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$544 vs −$1,038 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$9,573
Realized−$300,050
Unrealized−$1,308
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses91 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$510
Open positions2
Markets (closed)174 / 176
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$1,140
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $5,401 $5,232 −$169 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 70¢ $5,480 $4,341 −$1,139 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,959 −$3,924 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2,284 −$2,249 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4,043 +$2,200 +54%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,451 −$1,423 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5,197 −$5,197 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6,575 +$3,911 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6,649 +$4,868 +73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$2 -12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,127 +$1,261 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,957 +$1,316 +67%
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 20 $2,015 −$1,976 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $224 −$217 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2,004 −$2,004 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2,557 −$2,557 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET Jun 12 $3,405 −$3,405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET Jun 12 $4,390 −$4,197 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $55 +$119 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $485 −$468 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $3,945 −$3,562 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $2,763 +$1,872 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $173 +$57 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $91 +$82 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $498 +$392 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET May 18 $1,878 −$1,796 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $1,242 +$454 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1AM ET May 18 $3,065 −$2,158 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $1,717 +$1,041 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET May 18 $1,888 +$1,541 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $2,181 +$1,269 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 15 $500 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 15 $824 +$632 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 15 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11PM ET May 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3AM ET May 15 $1,457 +$38 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 15 $112 −$84 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 15 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 15 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $393 −$393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 15 $383 −$383 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $1,088 −$1,046 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 15 $533 −$533 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 15 $375 −$375 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 15 $962 −$123 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1AM ET May 15 $476 −$476 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 15 $422 −$422 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5,485 8m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5,498 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,959 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2,284 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6,244 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $1,451 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4,043 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6,575 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5,197 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $6,649 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3,388 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,273 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,957 33h
Sweden to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 34¢ $2,015 33h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $2,127 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 31¢ $55 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $485 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $358 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $24 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,573.43 · official $9,573.43 (match) · 3500 history records