Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e41…1b9b crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days+$36
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$4
world 35% −$3
other 17% −$21
tech 8% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% +$44
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 +3.9% -6.0% 33% 20% -9.1%
≤90d 20 -2.1% -11.4% 40% 15% -9.3%
all 43 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 7% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 7% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 7% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage412d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 29 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 29 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 29 $825 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 23 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $803 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 19? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 18 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $775 −$1 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $77 +$44 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +65%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $27 +$10 +38%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 12 $19 −$18 -99%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 30-April 5? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 30-April 5? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on January 1? Feb 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 1? Jan 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66? Dec 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will VOY A LLeVARTE PA PR by Bad Bunny be the most streamed song globa Nov 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Nov 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Oct 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jul 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? May 28 $215 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 28 $195 $0 -0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio May 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $783 1h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $259 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $525 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $785 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $599 1h
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.60 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $727 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $775 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $773 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 6d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $803 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? SELL No 99¢ $771 11d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $42 11d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $350 11d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $194 11d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 99¢ $422 11d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $581 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 11d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $775 11d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $773 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.95 · official $14.95 (match) · 116 history records