Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e3e…62ad other 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%13W / 55L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$13
politics 15% −$7
other 8% +$6
economics 2% $0
sports 1% +$47
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.9% +3.9% 14% 14% -3.8%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 11% 5% -8.2%
≤90d 54 +4.1% -5.8% 19% 13% -8.8%
all 68 +5.2% -4.8% 19% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 12% -9.4%
10% -14.0% 12% -18.0%
15% -22.3% 12% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses13 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage603d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$8 +105%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $117 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 14 $6 +$10 +152%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $224 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $118 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $110 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $112 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $119 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $110 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +62%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 +$9 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 7m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 22h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $25 7d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 10d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $16 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 19d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 19d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.05 · official $111.05 (match) · 270 history records