Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7e3d…3a8e politics 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$15
other 40% −$15
sports 7% −$24
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -4.3% -13.4% 4% 3% -9.8%
all 117 -3.8% -12.9% 6% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage116d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $463 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $190 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $412 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $419 −$4 -1%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $349 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $161 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $181 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $226 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $406 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $418 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $175 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $228 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 4h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 11h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 25h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 39h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $190 26d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 26d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $181 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $180 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $180 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 31d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $194 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 351 history records