Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7e3b…5d31
other · 87 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$4,585 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,915 · open +$105
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,146
Realized−$4,915
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
Avg bet$2,187
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 4 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,222 $1,213 −$9 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $669 $815 +$146 (+22%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $103 $114 +$10 (+10%)
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $46 $3 −$43 (-93%)
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 1AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down on February 15? Down 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $421 −$40 -10%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 23 $703 +$22 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 25 $2,481 −$1,767 -71%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 25 $4,202 −$3,290 -78%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Feb 23 $3,147 −$243 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 1AM ET Feb 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $4,125 −$1,921 -47%
XRP Up or Down on February 15? Feb 15 $562 +$112 +20%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $1,297 +$289 +22%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 12 $20,020 +$67 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Feb 11 $3,236 −$1,203 -37%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Feb 10 $1,552 +$900 +58%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 10 $370 −$235 -63%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 09 $1,669 +$312 +19%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $2,203 −$2,196 -100%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Feb 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $2,480 +$6,864 +277%
Solana Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $442 +$744 +168%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $1,559 +$169 +11%
Silver (SI) Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $467 +$466 +100%
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Feb 02 $1,194 −$1,194 -100%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Feb 02 $1,583 +$2,602 +164%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by February 14? Feb 01 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 01 $157 +$28 +18%
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January Jan 31 $5 −$4 -76%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $9,989 +$5,574 +56%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jan 26 $4,769 −$2,923 -61%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Jan 26 $7,743 −$1,089 -14%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in over 2 hours and 30 minutes? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31 Jan 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minut Jan 25 $424 −$8 -2%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Jan 25 $659 −$110 -17%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 24 $351 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,900 on January 21? Jan 24 $491 −$28 -6%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Jan 24 $1,897 +$341 +18%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Jan 23 $1,903 +$317 +17%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $20,238 +$17 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jan 17 $7,145 +$675 +9%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Jan 15 $1,286 +$35 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $2,202 +$590 +27%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Jan 11 $5,325 −$5,293 -99%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Jan 11 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 11 $1,066 −$773 -72%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $534 −$530 -99%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $1,156 −$1,142 -99%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $526 +$17 +3%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $2,429 −$1,663 -68%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Game Direction at the 2025 G Dec 20 $1 $0 +35%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $435 −$78 -18%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters? Apr 25 $673 −$669 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% −$14,011
politics 23% +$11,837
economics 23% −$1,308
crypto 7% +$5,484
world 4% −$4,703
tech 4% −$1,853
sports 1% −$1,665
culture 1% +$1,409
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 12¢ $108 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $130 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $263 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $177 6h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $102 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 7¢ $90 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 15¢ $562 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,149 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $100 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 18¢ $656 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 10¢ $1,253 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 10¢ $611 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 15¢ $571 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 9¢ $812 12d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $298 93d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $34 93d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 93d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 93d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 93d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 1 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -18.1%
≤90d 2 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 0% -11.0%
all 83 -9.5% -18.1% 34% 24% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 24% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 17% -20.4%
15% -33.1% 12% -28.1%
20% -39.7% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,145.56 · official $2,145.56 (match) · 1656 history records