Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e3a…5696 other 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%18W / 145L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$28
politics 27% −$23
sports 20% −$19
crypto 7% −$3
culture 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 3% −$6
economics 3% −$1
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 66 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 151 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 163 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses18 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage102d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $28 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $60 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham Jun 17 $59 −$3 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $39 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $235 −$2 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $208 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $43 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $211 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $327 −$2 -1%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $112 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $423 −$5 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $331 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $609 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $380 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $53 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $44 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $44 6h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $46 6h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $47 14h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 15h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 21h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $52 22h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $52 26h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $28 26h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $28 32h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $56 33h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $57 40h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $59 40h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham SELL No 91¢ $56 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 95¢ $59 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 89¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $49 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $50 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.94 · official $52.94 (match) · 713 history records