Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e3a…3246 sports 483 markets active 2d ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$257,148 (+8%) realized +$257,148 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%257W / 226L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$6,807per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$7,196est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$730
7 days−$157,041
14 days−$170,162
30 days−$106,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$251,392
other 0% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.2% -17.0% 71% 59% -69.0%
≤30d 53 +7.0% -3.2% 62% 47% -26.7%
≤90d 156 +17.6% +6.4% 58% 49% -1.9%
all 483 +7.3% -2.9% 53% 48% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 48% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 42% -11.9%
15% -20.7% 36% -20.4%
20% -28.4% 34% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$5,845) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,480 vs −$5,119 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$257,148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses257 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$7,196
Open positions0
Markets (closed)483 / 483
History coverage159d
Avg bet$6,807
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 483 Trades
no open positions (219 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,267 +$730 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $39,900 −$39,206 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $28,419 +$13,581 +48%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $2,154 +$133 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $403 −$394 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $4,543 −$4,470 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 11 $263 +$25 +10%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $308 +$120 +39%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 11 $529 +$59 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 11 $502 +$93 +18%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Jun 11 $1,096 +$136 +12%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $1,558 +$540 +35%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $4,373 +$2,077 +48%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 11 $18,062 +$4,272 +24%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 11 $1,044 +$545 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $105,587 −$104,596 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $30,761 −$30,688 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1,639 +$1,061 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $3,615 +$2,338 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $14,460 +$14,084 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5,365 −$5,281 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5,857 −$5,782 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 09 $2,950 +$297 +10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $2,737 +$263 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 09 $198 −$193 -97%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 09 $742 +$63 +8%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 09 $4,104 +$162 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $12,673 −$12,560 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $809 +$5,256 +650%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $2,424 +$448 +18%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $13,480 −$13,275 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 03 $5,469 +$1,676 +31%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $55,388 +$7,329 +13%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $548 −$535 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $238 +$430 +180%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $708 +$13 +2%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 29 $307 +$507 +165%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 29 $407 +$593 +146%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $6,280 +$2,611 +42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $57,194 +$15,651 +27%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 May 28 $545 −$531 -97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 24 $312 −$312 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 24 $264 −$258 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx May 22 $1,928 +$72 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $18,313 +$8,779 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $94,133 +$37,457 +40%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 21 $206 +$802 +388%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) May 20 $1,662 −$1,630 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 19 $2,659 −$2,609 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $543 −$534 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $200 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $597 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $42 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $6 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $421 44h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $70 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $39,830 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $1,353 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $27,065 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 94¢ $2,154 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $403 4d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4,543 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $15 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $352 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $233 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $117 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $58,869 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 70¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $310 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $1,824 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $67 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $207 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $223 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $223 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $22 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $11,456 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 69¢ $22 6d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Spurs 77¢ $177 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2461 history records