Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7e39…64fc
other · 242 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$26 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$52
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses113 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions27
Markets (closed)215 / 242
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 27 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$5
14 days−$2
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 47¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$11 +174%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +19%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $21 +$3 +14%
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score May 31 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 +$2 +97%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 30 $5 +$6 +125%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $16 +$18 +111%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? May 30 $1 $0 -11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $1 $0 -18%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $1 $0 -12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 $0 -32%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 +$2 +109%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3 +$2 +71%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? May 30 $1 $0 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele May 30 $3 $0 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following May 30 $1 $0 -15%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? May 30 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 +$1 +36%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? May 30 $3 −$1 -15%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? May 30 $1 $0 -20%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $3 $0 -9%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$6
crypto 25% +$3
sports 17% +$16
politics 6% −$2
world 4% +$1
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 1h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 27h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $3 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 27h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 30h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $2 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 32h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 32h
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.0% -19.5% 35% 35% -18.3%
≤30d 103 +6.9% -3.2% 54% 45% +1.0%
≤90d 191 -4.4% -13.5% 51% 41% -6.5%
all 215 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 43% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 43% -4.6%
10% -18.4% 35% -13.7%
15% -26.3% 30% -22.1%
20% -33.5% 24% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.01 · official $52.02 (match) · 564 history records