Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:31:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e36…c5f8 other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$811 (+28%) realized +$810 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%35W / 22L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$285
14 days+$343
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$774
crypto 2% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.4% +37.0% 100% 100% +35.4%
≤30d 10 +34.2% +21.4% 80% 80% +23.8%
≤90d 13 +3.2% -6.6% 62% 62% +14.4%
all 57 +25.8% +13.8% 61% 61% +17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 61% +17.7%
10% +2.9% 58% +6.5%
15% -7.0% 54% -3.8%
20% -16.1% 49% -13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$28 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$810
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses35 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage147d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$15 +14%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$35 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $224 +$106 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$94 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$35 +71%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $87 +$98 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $65 +$102 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 +$8 +14%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? May 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $56 +$113 +203%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $69 +$67 +96%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $23 +$36 +156%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $10 +$36 +356%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $30 +$18 +59%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-02-20? Mar 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18? Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Feb 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $42 +$76 +182%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $55 +$70 +127%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $33 +$33 +101%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $10 +$23 +229%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $38 +$31 +82%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $54 +$21 +40%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $27 +$14 +51%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $179 −$63 -35%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $50 +$29 +59%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $10 $0 -3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $99 +$81 +82%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $24 +$12 +51%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $27 +$7 +24%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $36 +$17 +47%
Will PSV win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $23 +$24 +103%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $55 +$57 +104%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $23 +$28 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $74 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $116 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $167 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $57 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $28 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $84 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $49 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $58 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $58 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $65 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $57 12d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 97d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 97d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $56 99d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 103d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 103d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 103d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.17 · official $189.17 (match) · 140 history records