Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7e35…1a6c politics 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$62,558 (+95%) realized +$52,052 · open +$10,506
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%56W / 38L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day85.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$65,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$9,392
other 42% +$9,999
world 10% +$794
culture 3% −$55
finance 0% +$387
economics 0% +$115
sports 0% +$16
tech 0% +$5
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+101.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +209.1% +179.6% 72% 67% +34.9%
≤30d 76 +120.2% +99.2% 58% 43% +14.6%
≤90d 94 +122.5% +101.3% 60% 47% +25.4%
all 94 +122.5% +101.3% 60% 47% +25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +101.3% 47% +25.4%
10% ← realistic here +82.0% 37% +13.4%
15% +64.4% 29% +2.5%
20% +48.3% 24% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +122% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +162% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$78 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.34 per $1 lost it wins $4.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$65,965
Realized+$52,052
Unrealized+$10,506
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses56 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions251
Markets (closed)94 / 254
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day85.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 251 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 40¢ 84¢ $5,014 $10,415 +$5,401 (+108%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 33¢ $2,249 $3,440 +$1,191 (+53%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 60¢ $1,280 $2,017 +$738 (+58%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $2,073 $1,751 −$322 (-16%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $690 $1,330 +$640 (+93%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1,196 $1,239 +$43 (+4%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $990 $1,222 +$232 (+23%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $829 $1,047 +$218 (+26%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $1,118 $1,038 −$80 (-7%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,020 $989 −$31 (-3%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 40¢ 44¢ $906 $985 +$79 (+9%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 47¢ 95¢ $487 $982 +$495 (+102%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 39¢ 74¢ $506 $967 +$461 (+91%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 69¢ 93¢ $677 $906 +$229 (+34%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 57¢ 96¢ $524 $881 +$357 (+68%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 46¢ 42¢ $900 $822 −$78 (-9%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $629 $807 +$178 (+28%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 77¢ 87¢ $628 $710 +$82 (+13%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 75¢ 62¢ $838 $701 −$137 (-16%)
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Yes 54¢ 81¢ $456 $683 +$228 (+50%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 62¢ 97¢ $427 $664 +$237 (+55%)
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $510 $608 +$98 (+19%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 37¢ 53¢ $391 $557 +$166 (+42%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $469 $545 +$75 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $553 $533 −$20 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 19 $124 −$124 -100%
Will another pair of candidates advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 19 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,294 +$220 +17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $282 +$14 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $85 −$40 -47%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $58 +$24 +41%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $62 +$360 +578%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $59 +$653 +1113%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 16 $1,528 +$634 +42%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 15 $38 +$9 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$16 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $775 +$557 +72%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 14 $8 −$46 -564%
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian gov Jun 14 $37 +$5 +13%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $26 +$50 +189%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $7 +$849 +12300%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 11 $744 −$180 -24%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $300 −$24 -8%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 11 $208 −$14 -7%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $100 −$10 -10%
Will William Timmons be the Republican nominee for SC-04? Jun 10 $0 $0 +59%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 09 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $211 +$13 +6%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $103 −$7 -7%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Jun 09 $38 +$10 +26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $774 +$45 +6%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $251 +$26 +10%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 08 $188 +$29 +15%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $227 +$6 +3%
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Jun 06 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Jun 06 $92 +$7 +7%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $103 +$5 +4%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 06 $164 +$34 +21%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 06 $1 $0 -18%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $459 +$141 +31%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $81 +$13 +17%
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 05 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Vincenzo Ceccarelli win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 05 $141 −$137 -97%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 05 $33 +$7 +22%
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 05 $302 −$302 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 05 $226 −$226 -100%
Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Jun 05 $625 −$239 -38%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l Jun 05 $3 +$11 +379%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $14 7m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL No 34¢ $66 23m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 36m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 35¢ $35 37m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 35¢ $13 37m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 35¢ $22 39m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 31¢ $21 43m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an BUY Yes 11¢ $11 44m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 47m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 45¢ $35 50m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 58m
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY No 62¢ $6 59m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 4¢ $100 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $14 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 85¢ $86 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 86¢ $29 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 6¢ $57 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $26 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $28 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 81¢ $163 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $56 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,965.45 · official $65,970.90 (match) · 3500 history records