Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e35…79fb other 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,369 (-37%) realized −$1,750 · open −$11,619
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,017per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$12,814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$314
7 days−$2,763
14 days−$4,704
30 days−$4,704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$10,398
world 18% −$3,873
sports 6% −$2,052
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-72.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -63.7% -67.2% 20% 0% -38.2%
≤30d 6 -69.8% -72.6% 17% 0% -49.5%
≤90d 6 -69.8% -72.6% 17% 0% -49.5%
all 6 -69.8% -72.6% 17% 0% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.6% 0% -49.5%
10% ← realistic here -75.3% 0% -54.3%
15% -77.6% 0% -58.7%
20% -79.8% 0% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
19.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$994 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$12,814
Realized−$1,750
Unrealized−$11,619
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3,017
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,524 $5,371 −$153 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $6,430 $2,557 −$3,873 (-60%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5,043 $2,450 −$2,593 (-51%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3,267 $1,170 −$2,097 (-64%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,056 $842 −$214 (-20%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3,113 $425 −$2,689 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $314 −$314 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3,756 +$267 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $669 −$650 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,440 −$1,402 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,589 −$665 -26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,941 −$1,941 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,813.88 · official $14,274.75 · 260 history records