Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7E 0x7e34…63f7 sports 797 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,616 (-4%) realized −$5,830 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate69%547W / 247L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$847est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$716
7 days−$2,443
14 days−$2,062
30 days−$2,570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$2,826
other 27% +$35
world 2% +$233
politics 1% −$285
crypto 1% −$95
tech 0% −$49
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -21.7% -29.1% 57% 43% -20.9%
≤30d 215 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 53% -14.0%
≤90d 794 -0.9% -10.3% 69% 57% -11.6%
all 794 -0.9% -10.3% 69% 57% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 57% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 37% -20.1%
15% -26.7% 23% -27.8%
20% -33.9% 13% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$101 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized−$5,830
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses547 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$847
Open positions3
Markets (closed)794 / 797
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$172
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 794 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $268 $395 +$127 (+47%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Under 61¢ 92¢ $184 $276 +$91 (+50%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $117 −$7 -6%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $181 +$3 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $143 +$27 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $666 +$33 +5%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $419 −$54 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $171 +$29 +17%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $250 +$41 +16%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $206 +$61 +30%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $314 +$6 +2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $177 −$177 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $194 −$194 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $338 −$338 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $211 −$211 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $418 +$32 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $365 +$57 +16%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $171 +$25 +15%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $588 +$42 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $396 +$204 +51%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $231 −$217 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $265 +$35 +13%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $427 +$73 +17%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $57 +$20 +36%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $388 +$164 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $275 +$65 +24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $417 +$156 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $728 +$172 +24%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $260 −$76 -29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $534 +$66 +12%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $285 +$15 +5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $143 −$143 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $85 −$85 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 18 $291 −$291 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 18 $271 −$271 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 18 $438 −$438 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,203 −$953 -79%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $696 +$100 +14%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $179 −$160 -89%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $406 −$123 -30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $318 −$35 -11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $761 +$239 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $368 −$283 -77%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $143 +$57 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $418 +$82 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $240 +$65 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $94 4m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $16 4m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $187 29m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $117 33m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $271 47m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 33¢ $97 48m
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 92¢ $154 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 92¢ $25 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 92¢ $3 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 92¢ $1 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 SELL Under 92¢ $1 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 85¢ $170 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 90¢ $181 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $143 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $520 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 62¢ $188 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $77 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $12 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 75¢ $308 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 75¢ $2 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 75¢ $51 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 75¢ $4 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $108 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $67 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $261 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.95 · official $666.75 · 3500 history records