Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e33…bf8a tech 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$5
other 29% −$4
sports 17% −$3
tech 16% +$39
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.9% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 25 +0.1% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 40 +1.9% -7.8% 22% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 5% -9.3%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$572) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage214d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $169 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $170 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $107 +$4 +4%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $907 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $911 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $917 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $109 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 10 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 10 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 10 $573 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 15 $59 $0 -1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $99 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $194 +$4 +2%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Feb 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $42 +$2 +4%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $50 +$2 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $277 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 16 $91 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 21 $46 +$23 +51%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 30 $41 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $110 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $110 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $110 18d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $106 20d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $106 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $110 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 100¢ $111 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $107 40d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $905 53d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $906 53d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $905 53d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 53d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $907 53d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $908 53d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $909 53d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $911 53d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $912 53d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $914 53d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $913 53d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 53d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $915 53d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $917 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 99¢ $109 58d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $109 72d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $569 79d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $569 79d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $569 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.95 · official $109.78 (match) · 95 history records