Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e33…2981 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$101 (-5%) realized −$108 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$132
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$122
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 33% -16.7%
≤30d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 33% -16.5%
≤90d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 33% -16.5%
all 24 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 33% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 33% -16.5%
10% -18.1% 17% -24.5%
15% -26.0% 4% -31.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$26 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Paraguay 96¢ 100¢ $178 $185 +$7 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $172 +$7 +4%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 29 $157 +$15 +10%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $127 −$49 -38%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $304 −$101 -33%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $253 +$21 +8%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $126 −$37 -30%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $25 −$11 -42%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $101 −$31 -31%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $49 +$6 +13%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $39 +$11 +29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $44 +$16 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $29 +$5 +18%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $40 +$6 +15%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 96¢ $179 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $179 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $172 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $172 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Japan 90¢ $157 7h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 44¢ $78 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 61¢ $25 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $25 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $76 27h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL No 53¢ $203 45h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $304 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $274 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $253 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 57¢ $89 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL No 35¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $25 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $25 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $101 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $111 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $25 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $25 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $51 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 50¢ $70 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $10 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $15 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $15 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.14 · official $185.14 (match) · 83 history records