Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7e33…73e7 sports 199 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$827 (-3%) realized −$827 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%73W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$350est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$184
7 days−$994
14 days+$955
30 days+$1,362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$526
other 8% −$528
crypto 1% −$95
world 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -25.8% -32.9% 38% 38% -26.8%
≤30d 76 -1.2% -10.6% 43% 43% -1.9%
≤90d 133 -10.2% -18.7% 38% 38% -11.3%
all 199 -8.0% -16.8% 37% 37% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 37% -13.3%
10% -24.8% 36% -21.6%
15% -32.0% 35% -29.2%
20% -38.7% 34% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$121 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$827
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses73 / 126
Est. fees paid−$350
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage113d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $204 −$115 -57%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $389 +$221 +57%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $405 −$400 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Svitolina vs. Eala: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 19 $325 −$320 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $406 +$442 +109%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $304 +$222 +73%
Valencia vs. Barcelona Jun 18 $204 +$367 +180%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $223 −$220 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $254 +$250 +98%
Vekic vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Robin Montgomery vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$29 +29%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $255 +$153 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $254 +$278 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 +$509 +249%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $305 +$351 +115%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $208 +$202 +97%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $284 +$225 +79%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $132 +$205 +155%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $203 +$278 +137%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $292 +$319 +109%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Mees Rottgering Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $122 +$169 +138%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $743 +$479 +64%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Reyer Venezia vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 06 $237 −$234 -99%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $675 +$460 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $303 −$300 -99%
Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 05 $355 +$293 +82%
Arnaldi vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $335 −$23 -7%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $423 +$284 +67%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $1,088 +$121 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 04 $51 +$153 +298%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 04 $294 −$290 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $135 −$133 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 03 $51 +$134 +262%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $302 +$330 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Daniel Altmaier 15¢ $89 23m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $610 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 33¢ $204 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 44¢ $203 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $389 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 62¢ $405 11h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 22h
Svitolina vs. Eala: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 47¢ $325 28h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 47¢ $203 28h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $848 29h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 33¢ $102 30h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $526 30h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 57¢ $304 35h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $304 35h
Valencia vs. Barcelona SELL Barcelona 100¢ $571 45h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 35¢ $204 47h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $223 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $153 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 4d
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Joventut 46¢ $203 5d
Vekic vs. Raducanu: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $304 6d
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 50¢ $254 6d
Robin Montgomery vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 49¢ $131 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Robin Montgomery 49¢ $408 6d
Robin Montgomery vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 37¢ $102 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Robin Montgomery 30¢ $255 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $303 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $254 6d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 29¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records