Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7e31…d45b crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$52 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%60W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$74
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$14
other 17% −$40
sports 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -4.8% -13.8% 58% 45% -13.0%
≤30d 102 -4.8% -13.8% 58% 45% -13.0%
≤90d 102 -4.8% -13.8% 58% 45% -13.0%
all 105 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 44% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 44% -13.5%
10% -23.5% 34% -21.8%
15% -30.9% 30% -29.4%
20% -37.7% 24% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses60 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage118d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $201 $200 −$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 92¢ $46 $73 +$27 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$23 +58%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $75 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$24 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $127 −$25 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $77 +$39 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$35 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $76 −$25 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$11 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $53 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $6 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $32 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $7 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $99 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.63 · official $273.63 (match) · 264 history records