Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e2c…c9f4 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$14 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
other 27% −$6
crypto 20% +$1
politics 10% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 38% -10.8%
≤30d 9 +12.3% +1.6% 78% 33% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +11.1% +0.5% 80% 30% -9.1%
all 12 +9.4% -1.0% 83% 25% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 25% -9.1%
10% -10.5% 8% -17.8%
15% -19.2% 8% -25.7%
20% -27.1% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage138d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $124 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 92¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 +$8 +14%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $110 −$13 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 22 $218 +$6 +3%
Will BNB dip to $400 in February? May 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Feb 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? Feb 26 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $62 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $125 1h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? SELL No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $64 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $97 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 25d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 25d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $110 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $54 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $54 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $50 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $50 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 33d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 87¢ $1 33d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 90¢ $1 40d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $2 40d
Will BNB dip to $400 in February? BUY No 99¢ $1 109d
Will BNB dip to $400 in February? BUY No 99¢ $2 109d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $3 137d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $2 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.23 · official $183.23 (match) · 58 history records