Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e2a…d25c sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$287 (-4%) realized −$287 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$922
sports 29% +$1,774
crypto 14% −$983
world 3% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.1% -19.5% 29% 29% -13.9%
≤30d 21 -11.1% -19.5% 29% 29% -13.9%
≤90d 21 -11.1% -19.5% 29% 29% -13.9%
all 21 -11.1% -19.5% 29% 29% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 29% -13.9%
10% -27.2% 29% -22.1%
15% -34.3% 29% -29.7%
20% -40.7% 24% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$659 vs −$286 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$287
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 16¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $425 +$231 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $293 +$140 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $184 +$362 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $103 −$6 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 +$26 +78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $134 −$132 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $590 −$579 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $998 −$983 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $391 −$380 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$550 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $408 +$2,648 +649%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $112 −$8 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $154 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $656 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $425 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $293 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $51 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $545 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $82 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 32h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes $97 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $102 34h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes $103 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $34 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $154 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $102 38h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $134 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $590 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $998 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $185 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $179 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $17 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,561 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,056 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $408 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.00 · official $150.00 (match) · 35 history records