Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7e28…2db0
other · 140 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$41 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$2
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)135 / 140
History coverage92d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 5 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 73¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 43¢ 80¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+87%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 DN SOOPers Challengers 61¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+63%)
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Yes 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $18 $0 -3%
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $23 $0 -2%
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 12 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $19 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Ghana be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $24 $0 -1%
Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $121 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $19 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $38 −$1 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 09 $2 $0 -10%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$12
politics 18% −$4
world 16% −$7
sports 13% −$9
finance 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$2
economics 6% −$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $10 38m
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $11 38m
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 1h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 41¢ $8 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 41¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 43¢ $8 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 36¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4h
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 61¢ $17 4h
Will Norway finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 62¢ $18 4h
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. SELL Neymar 14¢ $5 5h
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. BUY Neymar 14¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $20 6h
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $2 6h
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $21 6h
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 21¢ $6 6h
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.9% -12.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 37 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 126 -2.6% -11.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 135 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.37 · official $0.70 · 1332 history records