Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7E 0x7e28…625c other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$299 (+10%) realized +$300 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate65%42W / 23L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$193
14 days+$312
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$307
sports 16% +$20
crypto 1% +$6
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +19.4% +8.0% 68% 61% +3.5%
≤30d 65 +18.9% +7.6% 65% 57% +2.0%
≤90d 65 +18.9% +7.6% 65% 57% +2.0%
all 65 +18.9% +7.6% 65% 57% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 57% +2.0%
10% -2.7% 54% -7.7%
15% -12.1% 43% -16.6%
20% -20.8% 34% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$300
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses42 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 80
History coverage16d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-0 Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$8 +153%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$32 +32%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +116%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$24 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$27 +9%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$27 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$4 +197%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $301 +$25 +8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$3 +69%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $2 +$4 +208%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $108 +$27 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $261 +$50 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $364 +$15 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $201 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $14 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 33¢ $1 20h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 44¢ $2 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 71¢ $10 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 67¢ $10 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $10 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 80¢ $201 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-0 BUY 61¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 39¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $30 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 26¢ $2 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 45¢ $5 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 19¢ $3 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.55 · official $220.55 (match) · 132 history records