Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e26…915c crypto 623 markets active 3d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$141 (-4%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate54%336W / 287L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$80
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$99
other 10% −$82
sports 5% −$2
weather 3% −$75
finance 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 454 -0.8% -10.3% 60% 33% -10.6%
≤30d 592 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 30% -14.4%
≤90d 623 -6.5% -15.4% 54% 30% -16.3%
all 623 -6.5% -15.4% 54% 30% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 30% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 16% -24.3%
15% -30.9% 7% -31.6%
20% -37.7% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses336 / 287
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)623 / 623
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 623 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -10%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
BNB Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 83¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $1 3d
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire SELL Dallas Wings 83¢ $1 3d
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY Dallas Wings 88¢ $1 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 86¢ $1 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 90¢ $1 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 84¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 90¢ $1 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt SELL Alex Bolt 99¢ $1 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 94¢ $1 3d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Golden State Valkyries 85¢ $1 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 90¢ $1 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $1 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 89¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 6d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1566 history records