Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e26…8991 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,313 (+61%) realized +$1,248 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$969
sports 34% +$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +48.1% +34.0% 78% 78% +47.6%
≤30d 9 +48.1% +34.0% 78% 78% +47.6%
≤90d 9 +48.1% +34.0% 78% 78% +47.6%
all 9 +48.1% +34.0% 78% 78% +47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 78% +47.6%
10% +21.2% 78% +33.5%
15% +9.5% 78% +20.6%
20% -1.2% 67% +8.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$85 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.59 per $1 lost it wins $8.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$1,248
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 100¢ $50 $143 +$93 (+186%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 14¢ $50 $22 −$27 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $120 +$95 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $699 +$434 +62%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $197 +$117 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $303 +$120 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $148 +$279 +188%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$273 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$142 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $699 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $72 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $120 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $197 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $148 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.29 · official $165.29 (match) · 18 history records