Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e24…d389 crypto 562 markets active 3d ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%269W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$47
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -19.4% -27.1% 44% 44% -23.3%
≤30d 339 -20.7% -28.2% 47% 38% -24.1%
≤90d 562 -12.3% -20.6% 48% 40% -14.2%
all 562 -12.3% -20.6% 48% 40% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 40% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 31% -22.4%
15% -35.2% 22% -29.9%
20% -41.5% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses269 / 293
Open positions0
Markets (closed)562 / 562
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 562 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records