trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $9,645 | $9,162 | −$482 (-5%) |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $998 | $0 | −$998 (-100%) |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $999 | $0 | −$999 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 23 | $662 | +$809 | +122% |
| US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? | Jan 15 | $998 | −$998 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | Jan 12 | $999 | −$999 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +122.2% | +101.1% | 100% | 100% | +101.1% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +122.2% | +101.1% | 100% | 100% | +101.1% |
| all | 3 | -25.9% | -33.0% | 33% | 33% | -50.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.0% | 33% | -50.0% |
| 10% | -39.4% | 33% | -54.8% |
| 15% | -45.2% | 33% | -59.1% |
| 20% | -50.6% | 33% | -63.1% |