Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e16…35f5 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$504 (+6%) realized +$504 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$28
14 days−$952
30 days−$952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$553
politics 28% +$1,398
world 4% −$302
sports 3% −$82
crypto 1% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +79.1% +62.1% 43% 43% -11.7%
≤30d 21 +4.5% -5.4% 38% 38% -35.5%
≤90d 22 +5.1% -4.9% 41% 41% -19.6%
all 26 -3.9% -13.0% 38% 38% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 38% -3.6%
10% -21.3% 35% -12.8%
15% -28.9% 31% -21.2%
20% -35.9% 19% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$122 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$504
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage599d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $264 +$76 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $507 −$25 -5%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$121 +784%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$22 +37%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $100 −$98 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $393 +$179 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$31 +202%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$65 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $222 −$220 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 02 $2,123 +$349 +16%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jun 30 $53 −$53 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 23 $205 −$152 -74%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $2,237 +$1,398 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $340 5m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $264 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 48¢ $241 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $254 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $242 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 23¢ $81 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 7d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $100 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $571 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $393 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $76 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $46 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 12d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $392 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $166 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $222 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records