Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7E 0x7e13…0c61 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$67 (-16%) realized −$60 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day9.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-27.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-19.6%	-27.2%	52%	43%	-24.9%
≤30d	23	-19.6%	-27.2%	52%	43%	-24.9%
≤90d	23	-19.6%	-27.2%	52%	43%	-24.9%
all	23	-19.6%	-27.2%	52%	43%	-24.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.2%	43%	-24.9%
10%	-34.2%	35%	-32.1%
15%	-40.6%	30%	-38.6%
20%	-46.4%	17%	-44.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late -41% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized−$60

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage4d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day9.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	66¢	$35	$27	−$7 (-21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$30	+$5	+16%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$12	−$11	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$28	−$17	-59%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$15	+$23	+152%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$15	$0	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$10	+$5	+45%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners	Jun 22	$18	−$10	-54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$14	−$14	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	+$4	+41%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	Jun 21	$15	−$14	-98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$14	+$1	+5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$30	−$26	-86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$10	+33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$21	+$9	+41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$13	+$7	+57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	−$17	-83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$27	+$3	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$16	+$10	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$35	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$35	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$30	9h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$12	17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	28¢	$12	17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$28	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	39¢	$15	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	94¢	$15	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$15	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	32h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	42h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	46h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	47h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Under	43¢	$8	47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners	SELL Under	36¢	$8	47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Under	42¢	$10	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$14	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	2d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Kyoji Horiguchi	36¢	$15	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	95¢	$14	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	12¢	$4	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	84¢	$30	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	93¢	$40	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$30	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.35 · official $27.35 (match) · 50 history records