Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7e13…cdad crypto 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+2%) realized +$74 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%418W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day58.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$115
7 days+$74
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 340 +2.2% -7.6% 69% 67% -6.5%
≤30d 639 +0.8% -8.8% 65% 64% -8.4%
≤90d 639 +0.8% -8.8% 65% 64% -8.4%
all 639 +0.8% -8.8% 65% 64% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 64% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 59% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 48% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 36% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses418 / 221
Open positions1
Markets (closed)639 / 640
History coverage16d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day58.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 84¢ 98¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.54 · official $9.58 · 1360 history records