Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e12…9c81 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$20
politics 30% −$11
tech 7% −$2
sports 6% +$80
economics 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 +2.2% -7.5% 8% 6% -9.4%
all 108 +2.2% -7.6% 12% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -9.4%
10% -16.4% 6% -18.1%
15% -24.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.9% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×9.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage116d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $285 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $208 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $289 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $308 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $285 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $300 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $247 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $257 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $303 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 21 $298 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $287 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 16 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $308 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $411 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $319 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $300 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $239 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $318 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 17d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 21d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $285 21d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $285 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $208 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $208 26d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $256 30d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $256 30d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $224 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 35d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 36d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 45d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $287 45d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $287 46d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $289 46d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $289 46d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $260 46d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $260 46d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $277 46d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $277 47d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $308 47d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $308 47d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $294 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 324 history records