Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e10…d25b weather 1094 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+0%) realized +$100 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate86%958W / 151L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day69.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$307
7 days−$199
14 days−$16
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 24% +$42
other 23% +$37
sports 21% +$196
finance 17% +$11
tech 9% −$28
politics 5% +$46
culture 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$66
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -14.7% -22.8% 80% 4% -10.7%
≤30d 870 -6.7% -15.6% 86% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 1109 -4.6% -13.7% 86% 7% -9.5%
all 1109 -4.6% -13.7% 86% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 7% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses958 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1109 / 1094
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day69.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $95 $100 +$4 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 2¢ 4¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Colin Sinclair 95¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 119 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or below on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 4? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 4? Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on May 8? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 5? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 6? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 130-140mm of precipitation in April? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $28 +$2 +7%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $114 +$1 +1%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $90 +$6 +7%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 Jun 16 $306 +$8 +2%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $64 +$1 +2%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $495 +$5 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $177 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $109 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $46 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $242 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $168 +$7 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $122 +$1 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $289 +$3 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Jun 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Colin Sinclair 95¢ $5 1h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi BUY Jake Delaney 99¢ $10 1h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Colin Sinclair 96¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 94¢ $28 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $48 2h
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 2h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $48 2h
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 99¢ $198 3h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 5h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $114 5h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 95¢ $38 5h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 99¢ $99 5h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 98¢ $64 5h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 98¢ $66 6h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 97¢ $64 6h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 96¢ $39 6h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 97¢ $33 6h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 93¢ $30 6h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 90¢ $27 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $2 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $495 10h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $20 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.00 · official $284.00 (match) · 3500 history records