Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e10…30b3 other 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$12
other 30% −$6
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 7% +$7
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 21% 0% -12.2%
all 30 -1.6% -10.9% 27% 3% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -10.8%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage309d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $71 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $7 +$1 +10%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $86 −$10 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Oct 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +4%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 23 $3 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $47 +$7 +16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 -1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 20 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 10m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $36 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $31 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $38 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $18 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records