Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e0d…44f9 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 578d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$206 (+3%) realized +$206 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate69%40W / 18L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$2
other 34% $0
crypto 23% +$208
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 58 +0.7% -8.9% 69% 2% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -6.7%
10% -17.6% 2% -15.6%
15% -25.5% 2% -23.8%
20% -32.8% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.46 per $1 lost it wins $9.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

578d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses40 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage578d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 10 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? Nov 22 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET Nov 06 $225 +$225 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $1,029 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19? Nov 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +1%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $520 −$1 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 14? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,075 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $9 $0 +3%
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +1%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +2%
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parlia Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandi Dec 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Dec 05 $1 $0 +6%
CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R) Dec 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? Dec 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Nov 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump do better in Ohio or Texas? Nov 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Republican candidate win Georgia by 2.0%-3.0%? Nov 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Nov 20 $549 −$1 -0%
Will another team win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Nov 20 $180 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Nov 20 $387 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Nov 20 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 60d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $30 103d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $12 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $2 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $2 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $1 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $1 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $3 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $2 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $1 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $2 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $5 117d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $31 159d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $31 178d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $31 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $122k November 3-9? BUY No 100¢ $31 226d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $225 227d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 227d
Will XRP reach $2.80 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 244d
Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 13-19? BUY No 99¢ $5 244d
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $4 244d
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $6 244d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $519 255d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $520 255d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $509 255d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $510 255d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? BUY No 96¢ $12 268d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 97¢ $11 304d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 141 history records