Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

7E 0x7e0b…e169 weather 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$59 (+4%) realized +$105 · open −$46

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate44%11W / 14L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day95.6pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)+1.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+12.4%	+1.7%	44%	32%	+2.4%
≤30d	25	+12.4%	+1.7%	44%	32%	+2.4%
≤90d	25	+12.4%	+1.7%	44%	32%	+2.4%
all	25	+12.4%	+1.7%	44%	32%	+2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover95.6 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+1.7%	32%	+2.4%
10% ← realistic here	-8.0%	24%	-7.4%
15%	-16.9%	20%	-16.3%
20%	-25.1%	20%	-24.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +25% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$219

Realized+$105

Unrealized−$46

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses11 / 14

Open positions23

Markets (closed)25 / 48

History coverage2d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day95.6

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 23 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18?	No	86¢	100¢	$43	$51	+$7 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?	Yes	19¢	24¢	$26	$34	+$8 (+29%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20?	Yes	37¢	51¢	$21	$29	+$8 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21?	No	98¢	97¢	$27	$27	−$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?	No	62¢	100¢	$16	$26	+$10 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19?	No	100¢	100¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19?	No	50¢	100¢	$5	$10	+$5 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18?	No	98¢	100¢	$9	$9	+$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20?	Yes	31¢	26¢	$6	$5	−$1 (-15%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?	No	100¢	100¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20?	Yes	18¢	14¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21?	No	98¢	98¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 20?	Yes	44¢	32¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-27%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20?	Yes	50¢	38¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?	Yes	21¢	1¢	$20	$1	−$19 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$13	$0	−$13 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$7	$0	−$7 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$14	$0	−$14 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19?	No	92¢	7¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$16	$0	−$16 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$6	$0	−$6 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$9	−$6	-73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19?	Jun 19	$3	−$3	-95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$70	−$21	-30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$8	+$6	+76%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$32	−$2	-6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$6	−$3	-49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 20?	Jun 18	$36	−$6	-17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19?	Jun 18	$41	−$9	-23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19?	Jun 18	$185	−$39	-21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$106	+$134	+127%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17?	Jun 18	$26	+$51	+198%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17?	Jun 18	$48	+$10	+20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17?	Jun 18	$8	$0	+0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17?	Jun 18	$74	+$5	+7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18?	Jun 18	$8	+$1	+11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18?	Jun 17	$47	−$20	-42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17?	Jun 17	$59	+$15	+26%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17?	Jun 17	$5	+$7	+149%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17?	Jun 17	$22	$0	+2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17?	Jun 17	$4	+$16	+437%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18?	Jun 17	$4	−$2	-56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18?	Jun 17	$5	−$3	-59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18	Jun 17	$12	−$9	-78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18?	Jun 17	$9	−$8	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	89¢	$32	1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	9¢	$3	2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	89¢	$0	2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	89¢	$2	2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 21?	BUY No	98¢	$27	2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21?	BUY No	98¢	$2	4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	35¢	$4	5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	12¢	$7	5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	15¢	$12	5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19?	BUY No	50¢	$5	5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	5¢	$4	5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	10¢	$6	5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	11¢	$17	7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	12¢	$6	7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20?	BUY Yes	19¢	$27	8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4	8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	5¢	$6	8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	21¢	$17	8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?	BUY Yes	21¢	$17	8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.28 · official $219.28 (match) · 227 history records