Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e0a…4b38 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$178 (+10%) realized +$181 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$356
7 days+$184
14 days+$178
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$292
sports 11% +$8
politics 10% −$120
world 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.6% -16.4% 37% 37% +4.0%
≤30d 29 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% +2.8%
≤90d 32 -8.4% -17.1% 34% 34% +0.6%
all 32 -8.4% -17.1% 34% 34% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 34% +0.6%
10% -25.1% 31% -9.1%
15% -32.3% 31% -17.8%
20% -38.9% 25% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$20 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)32 / 40
History coverage59d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $320 +$324 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$36 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +43%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 16 $97 −$10 -11%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$52 +256%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 −$6 -15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $55 −$5 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$2 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 13 $106 −$96 -91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$44 +172%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s J May 17 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 17 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 14 $50 −$7 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $76 12h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $59 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $28 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 15¢ $59 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $103 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.51 · official $396.54 (match) · 135 history records