Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:49:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e06…c72c crypto 593 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,028 (-19%) realized −$1,033 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%140W / 561L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$2,333
sports 7% +$218
world 5% −$18
other 4% +$53
tech 2% +$25
weather 1% −$30
culture 0% −$18
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -72.7% -75.3% 8% 8% -4.1%
≤30d 137 -71.3% -74.0% 9% 9% -1.0%
≤90d 168 -61.1% -64.8% 15% 11% -9.2%
all 701 -39.9% -45.6% 20% 17% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.6% 17% -42.3%
10% ← realistic here -50.8% 16% -47.8%
15% -55.6% 13% -52.9%
20% -59.9% 11% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$1,033
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses140 / 561
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)701 / 593
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 478 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$11 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 12PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 12PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 7, 8AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$11 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$11 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 2PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 3AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$8 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$4 -201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Scor BUY 25¢ $10 42m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY 48¢ $20 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY 33¢ $10 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY 54¢ $15 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY 37¢ $25 14h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals AND Will Senegal BUY 18¢ $20 25h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams BUY 56¢ $23 26h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND No BUY 36¢ $10 26h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Michael Olise: 1+ goals AND No BUY 22¢ $8 26h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoi BUY 50¢ $31 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U BUY 36¢ $15 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 48¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland to score f BUY 33¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24 BUY 35¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland vs. C BUY 27¢ $5 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Croatia to BUY 45¢ $16 3d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) AND Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY 12¢ $10 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 44¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AN BUY 27¢ $20 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 29¢ $7 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0. BUY 54¢ $35 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi BUY 5¢ $4 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.11 · official $202.17 · 3500 history records