Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e04…c004 crypto 749 markets active 0h ago coverage 411d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,667 (-23%) realized −$9,667 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%254W / 492L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$553
7 days+$521
14 days+$521
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$9,392
sports 1% −$228
tech 0% −$204
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +48.1% +34.0% 30% 30% +19.4%
≤30d 32 -7.5% -16.3% 19% 19% -28.7%
≤90d 112 -56.2% -60.4% 13% 13% -66.5%
all 746 -16.5% -24.4% 34% 33% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 33% -33.1%
10% -31.7% 32% -39.5%
15% -38.3% 30% -45.4%
20% -44.3% 26% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$54 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

411d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$9,667
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses254 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)746 / 749
History coverage411d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 443 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$20 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 +$687 +5155%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$18 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? May 31 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $17 −$16 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $25 −$23 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? May 27 $35 −$32 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 27 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? May 27 $18 −$17 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $40 −$37 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 09 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 09 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 09 $9 −$9 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 09 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 09 $18 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 09 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 09 $10 +$8 +80%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $30 −$28 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? May 08 $21 −$19 -93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 4m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $41 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $20 55m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $11 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $11 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $658 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $4 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 30h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 38h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.83 · official $62.03 · 3246 history records