Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7e01…b0b5 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,969 (-14%) realized −$3,234 · open +$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$262est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,191
7 days−$3,169
14 days−$1,832
30 days−$1,590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$1,226
world 29% −$882
crypto 2% −$450
politics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -47.7% -52.7% 30% 30% -45.2%
≤30d 34 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 41% -20.0%
≤90d 34 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 41% -20.0%
all 44 -22.9% -30.2% 41% 39% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 39% -22.6%
10% -36.9% 34% -30.0%
15% -43.0% 30% -36.7%
20% -48.6% 25% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$612) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$280 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$821
Realized−$3,234
Unrealized+$265
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$262
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage367d
Avg bet$442
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 49¢ 92¢ $359 $665 +$306 (+85%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Vitality 40¢ 62¢ $100 $156 +$56 (+56%)
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner summer bear 26¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier Jun 19 $458 −$220 -48%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,083 +$127 +12%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $239 −$239 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $321 −$321 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $375 −$375 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 19 $713 −$454 -64%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $612 −$612 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 19 $384 −$384 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $1,289 −$1,289 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $264 +$212 +80%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $200 +$187 +94%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $1,092 +$927 +85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,000 +$475 +48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $769 +$516 +67%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $365 +$82 +22%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $594 −$80 -14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $509 −$69 -14%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $204 −$94 -46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $243 +$166 +68%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $153 +$188 +123%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $204 +$153 +75%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $148 −$77 -52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $399 +$247 +62%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $740 +$42 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $101 +$78 +77%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $255 −$49 -19%
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September? Feb 02 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Feb 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 02 $1,778 −$32 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 06 $313 +$184 +59%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Aug 16 $282 −$239 -85%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 05 $450 −$450 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jul 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Jul 05 $900 −$900 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar today? Jun 24 $300 +$133 +44%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $1,939 +$543 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $200 12m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 50¢ $165 16m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 40¢ $102 34m
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 26¢ $96 38m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 7¢ $0 49m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL PlayTime 7¢ $65 50m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 45¢ $100 58m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 31¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 45¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $476 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $152 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $111 3h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $386 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $102 4h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 51¢ $200 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $894 17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 66¢ $101 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 45¢ $135 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 25¢ $40 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 76¢ $141 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 21¢ $60 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $204 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 73¢ $849 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 50¢ $152 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $203 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 51¢ $304 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 50¢ $27 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 28¢ $150 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 41¢ $5 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 47¢ $102 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $821.12 · official $704.42 · 192 history records