Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7D 0x7dfe…ba7e crypto 1936 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$557 (-2%) realized −$549 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%1022W / 840L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$490
7 days−$217
14 days+$367
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$51
sports 25% −$612
other 4% +$38
world 0% +$21
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% −$4
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 -36.8% -42.8% 32% 30% -21.9%
≤30d 695 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 51% -10.8%
≤90d 1699 -4.2% -13.4% 55% 52% -13.6%
all 1862 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 52% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 52% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 49% -21.3%
15% -29.3% 45% -28.9%
20% -36.2% 40% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$448
Realized−$549
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses1022 / 840
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions70
Markets (closed)1862 / 1936
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 1862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 68¢ 98¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+45%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+34%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Ledger IPO before 2027? No 28¢ 88¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+213%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 430 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
SBV Excelsior vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
FK Zenit vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Akron Zips Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Lightning vs. Hurricanes Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Flames vs. Ducks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Wo Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-01? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Utah Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Kocaelispor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Brown Bears vs. Harvard Crimson Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Blues vs. Kraken Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 36m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $1 59m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $1 59m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $1 59m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $1 59m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $1 59m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $1 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $1 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $1 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $1 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru BUY Danka Kovinic 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 89¢ $111 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.24 · official $448.25 (match) · 3500 history records