Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7dfd…b845 sports 641 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,854 (-1%) realized −$2,706 · open −$148
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate67%419W / 207L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$506per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$2,655est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,187
other 1% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 66% -1.1%
≤30d 597 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 62% -11.0%
≤90d 626 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 62% -11.3%
all 626 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 62% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 62% -11.3%
10% -19.3% 49% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -27.1% 36% -27.6%
20% -34.2% 24% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$656) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$439 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$942
Realized−$2,706
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses419 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$2,655
Open positions15
Markets (closed)626 / 641
History coverage48d
Avg bet$506
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $102 $125 +$23 (+23%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 79¢ 79¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 72¢ $93 $107 +$14 (+15%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ 50¢ $124 $101 −$23 (-19%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $72 $100 +$28 (+39%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Over 70¢ 77¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $41 $76 +$35 (+87%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Over 66¢ 62¢ $58 $54 −$4 (-7%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Over 65¢ 50¢ $57 $44 −$13 (-23%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 65¢ 44¢ $55 $37 −$18 (-32%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Over 73¢ 70¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 48¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Over 68¢ 18¢ $85 $22 −$62 (-74%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Over 64¢ 26¢ $51 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ $106 $7 −$99 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 201 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $70 +$30 +43%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $52 +$20 +40%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $41 +$14 +34%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $201 +$58 +29%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $77 +$48 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $109 +$41 +38%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $93 +$57 +62%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $114 +$216 +189%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $210 +$70 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $43 +$7 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $335 −$333 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $63 +$37 +60%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $108 +$224 +207%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $292 +$58 +20%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $138 +$62 +45%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Darderi vs Hanfmann Jun 23 $110 −$109 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $165 +$193 +117%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $130 +$19 +14%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $150 +$109 +72%
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Buse Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $64 −$63 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $280 −$280 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $248 +$109 +44%
Set 2 Winner: Polmans vs Dimitrov Jun 23 $57 +$18 +32%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $325 +$75 +23%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $59 −$58 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $199 +$351 +177%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $184 +$15 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $77 +$23 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $15 +$10 +69%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $54 −$53 -99%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $261 +$39 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $239 +$51 +21%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $196 +$43 +22%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $92 −$90 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $184 +$105 +57%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $144 −$116 -80%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $198 +$22 +11%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $131 +$69 +52%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $41 −$41 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $109 −$108 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $185 −$184 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $121 −$120 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $119 −$118 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $172 +$78 +46%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $127 +$73 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 79¢ $119 9m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 9m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 65¢ $0 10m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 65¢ $36 10m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 65¢ $21 10m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 11m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $14 11m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 11m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $34 11m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 12m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $125 35m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $94 41m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $25 42m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $259 42m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 74¢ $41 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 64¢ $31 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 64¢ $19 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $86 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $56 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 73¢ $29 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $73 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $71 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 69¢ $70 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $83 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $77 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $942.16 · official $942.16 (match) · 2092 history records