Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7dfa…7c44 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$109 (+14%) realized +$106 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$114
sports 1% −$5
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.9% -13.0% 72% 61% +12.2%
≤30d 18 -3.9% -13.0% 72% 61% +12.2%
≤90d 18 -3.9% -13.0% 72% 61% +12.2%
all 18 -3.9% -13.0% 72% 61% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 61% +12.2%
10% -21.3% 50% +1.5%
15% -28.9% 39% -8.3%
20% -35.9% 17% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $319 $322 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 +$3 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $165 +$86 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $323 1h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 82¢ $6 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $165 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $6 5d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 67¢ $5 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.81 · official $321.81 (match) · 38 history records