Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7df8…d377 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% $0
crypto 6% −$1
world 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -36.2%
≤30d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -36.2%
≤90d 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -36.2%
all 3 -30.2% -36.8% 33% 33% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 33% -36.2%
10% -42.9% 33% -42.3%
15% -48.4% 33% -47.9%
20% -53.5% 33% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)3 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.57 · official $13.58 (match) · 17 history records