Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7D 0x7df7…40a1 politics 39 markets active 4h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$18 (-4%) realized +$1 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$1
other 28% −$9
economics 6% −$6
world 4% $0
tech 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 0% -5.6%
≤30d 5 +9.7% -0.8% 100% 20% -0.7%
≤90d 5 +9.7% -0.8% 100% 20% -0.7%
all 5 +9.7% -0.8% 100% 20% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 20% -0.7%
10% -10.3% 20% -10.2%
15% -18.9% 0% -18.9%
20% -26.9% 0% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions34
Markets (closed)5 / 39
History coverage12d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 88¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 90¢ 81¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 89¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? No 90¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by June 30? No 90¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeting? No 94¢ 88¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? BUY No 90¢ $10 3h
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $10 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $10 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 30h
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad BUY Yes 93¢ $10 33h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 33h
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 33h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 86¢ $10 33h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 90¢ $10 33h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $10 33h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 90¢ $10 33h
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 33h
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 33h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 34h
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second rou BUY Yes 98¢ $50 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 85¢ $25 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $13 7d
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $10 10d
Nothing Ever Happens: June BUY Nothing 89¢ $10 10d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeti BUY No 94¢ $10 10d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 95¢ $10 10d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interes BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interes BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $10 10d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 10d
Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.67 · official $401.01 (match) · 45 history records