Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:11:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7D
0x7df6…ac3b
world · 294 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2,991 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,560 · open −$392
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,146
Realized+$2,560
Unrealized−$392
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses187 / 367
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions117
Markets (closed)554 / 294
History coverage25d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day130.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 117 History 554 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,727
7 days−$4,257
14 days−$1,441
30 days+$2,560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,071 $1,097 +$26 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $959 $931 −$28 (-3%)
Will jL win a trophy by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $696 $714 +$17 (+3%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $648 $645 −$3 (-1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $566 $576 +$10 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 82¢ 81¢ $527 $527 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $382 $389 +$6 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $368 $377 +$10 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 92¢ $287 $336 +$50 (+17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $238 $256 +$18 (+7%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 79¢ 74¢ $271 $255 −$15 (-6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 82¢ $246 $248 +$1 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $243 $244 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $225 $235 +$10 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $197 $212 +$16 (+8%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $193 $192 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $182 $185 +$3 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 30¢ $244 $175 −$69 (-28%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $167 $166 −$1 (-0%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $170 $164 −$6 (-3%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $160 $164 +$4 (+3%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 65¢ $154 $162 +$8 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 67¢ 74¢ $135 $147 +$12 (+9%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $114 $136 +$23 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $98 $129 +$31 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the State of the Union begin between 9:15PM and 9:30PM ET? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 13 $2 +$7 +382%
Will Donald Trump say "Iran" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM event Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.25 million Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Astralis win PGL Bucharest 2026? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Gervonta Davis arrested by January 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$9 -111%
Will PARIVISION win PGL Bucharest 2026? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Garcia vs. Onama Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$31 -156%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mouz qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs? Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ukraine strike in Russia on 28 November 2025? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 13 $593 −$584 -99%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$35 -92%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will K27 win PGL Astana 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) Jun 13 $19 −$18 -93%
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will UMP-45│Late Night Transit win the HLTV Skin of the Year award? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -110%
UFC Fight Night: Crute vs. Erslan Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Penrith Panthers win the 2025 National Rugby League? Jun 13 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% +$5,128
other 20% +$947
politics 7% −$77
sports 4% +$284
finance 4% +$935
crypto 4% −$38
economics 0% +$26
culture 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $71 59m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $1 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 22¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $38 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 52¢ $18 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 51¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 22¢ $27 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 70¢ $14 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $2 2h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $7 3h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $1 5h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $7 7h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $0 8h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 40¢ $32 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 98¢ $208 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $57 9h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 45¢ $91 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $79 10h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $99 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 69¢ $17 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 421 -16.8% -24.7% 21% 14% -25.2%
≤30d 547 +7.3% -2.9% 33% 19% -7.8%
≤90d 547 +7.3% -2.9% 33% 19% -7.8%
all 547 +7.3% -2.9% 33% 19% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 19% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 16% -16.6%
15% -20.7% 13% -24.6%
20% -28.4% 10% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,146.48 · official $12,150.78 (match) · 3500 history records