Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7df6…04ce sports 238 markets active 9d ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$24,612 (+308%) realized +$24,612 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%157W / 81L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$24,523
30 days+$24,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$220
world 31% +$6,977
politics 17% +$17,575
other 16% +$45
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +81.7% +64.4% 31% 31% +563.0%
≤90d 50 +23.2% +11.4% 50% 48% +493.3%
all 238 +4.1% -5.8% 66% 64% +266.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 64% +266.1%
10% -14.9% 48% +231.1%
15% -23.1% 31% +199.1%
20% -30.6% 21% +169.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +556% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +305% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$16 · ×10.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.0 per $1 lost it wins $20.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24,612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses157 / 81
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage225d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions (77 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 $0 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $11 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $9 −$5 -57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,305 +$17,573 +1346%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $2,467 +$6,967 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -94%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz May 14 $10 +$7 +68%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Incheon United FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers May 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox May 11 $10 +$12 +119%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 10 $10 +$7 +73%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles May 09 $10 +$6 +57%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos May 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 08 $10 +$5 +52%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 08 $10 +$13 +124%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 07 $10 +$8 +76%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kia Tigers May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 06 $10 +$7 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 03 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Samsung Lions May 03 $10 +$9 +90%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 03 $10 +$14 +134%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kia Tigers May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Apr 30 $10 +$6 +65%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroes Apr 30 $10 +$11 +105%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Hanwha Eagles Apr 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 24 $10 +$5 +46%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 24 $10 +$7 +70%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. LG Twins Apr 24 $10 +$16 +158%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $10 9d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 100¢ $9,554 10d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 80¢ $1,600 11d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 56¢ $1,101 11d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 64¢ $6,298 11d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $208 11d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 29¢ $1,028 11d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 27¢ $306 11d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 30¢ $617 11d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 15¢ $103 11d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $104 11d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 20¢ $103 11d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El BUY Yes 17¢ $310 11d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $104 11d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 13¢ $309 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 14d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 24¢ $116 16d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 23¢ $45 19d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 34¢ $34 20d
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 59¢ $10 21d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 62¢ $10 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 33¢ $36 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 33¢ $28 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 33¢ $66 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 443 history records