Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7df4…cb65 crypto 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-6%) realized −$52 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%83W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$30
14 days−$28
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$44
crypto 31% −$22
weather 10% −$22
world 1% −$2
other 1% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -7.9% -16.6% 44% 36% -15.3%
≤30d 207 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 30% -15.8%
≤90d 255 -7.4% -16.3% 33% 27% -17.0%
all 255 -7.4% -16.3% 33% 27% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 27% -17.0%
10% -24.3% 21% -24.9%
15% -31.6% 16% -32.2%
20% -38.3% 14% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses83 / 172
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)255 / 259
History coverage55d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$11 +507%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8 +$3 +40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$2 +32%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $9 +$6 +69%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$2 +27%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$3 +28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 +$22 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$15 +54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $18 +$16 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$2 +50%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $12 +$4 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$5 +81%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$11 +120%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $9 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 91¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 93¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 1202 history records