Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7D 0x7df4…3f8e world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$5
other 16% −$2
economics 4% $0
politics 4% +$4
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +5.1% -4.9% 44% 11% -8.1%
≤90d 9 +5.1% -4.9% 44% 11% -8.1%
all 37 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 5% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 5% -8.3%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.1%
15% -24.8% 5% -25.1%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage460d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $34 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $70 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $74 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $32 +$2 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $3 +$4 +121%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 23? Jun 21 $7 $0 +2%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $8 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
North Korea missile test by June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on March 17? Mar 17 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $33 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $34 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $34 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $3 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $29 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 355d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records