Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7D 0x7df2…bb51 politics 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$2
other 35% −$1
sports 12% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage105d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $114 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $114 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $111 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $25 9h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 11h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $39 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $111 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $112 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $112 25d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $112 25d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $112 31d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $112 31d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 34d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 35d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $112 38d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $112 38d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $112 41d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $112 42d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $112 46d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $112 47d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $113 65d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $113 65d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $113 70d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 70d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $114 73d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $114 74d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 84d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 84d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $114 87d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $114 87d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $114 93d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $114 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records