Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7D 0x7df1…e323 other 6 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-19%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$3
crypto 49% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 50% -27.3%
≤30d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 50% -27.3%
≤90d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 50% -27.3%
all 6 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 50% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 50% -27.3%
10% -19.3% 50% -34.3%
15% -27.1% 33% -40.6%
20% -34.2% 17% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records