Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7D 0x7def…4ba1 sports 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$574 (-5%) realized −$588 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%69W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$245
7 days+$212
14 days+$100
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$750
other 18% +$178
world 2% −$12
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.4% -16.2% 63% 63% -3.1%
≤30d 45 -4.9% -14.0% 60% 60% -5.3%
≤90d 48 -5.8% -14.8% 58% 58% -6.2%
all 154 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 41% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 41% -14.6%
10% -17.8% 36% -22.8%
15% -25.7% 29% -30.2%
20% -33.0% 24% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$59 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$588
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 85
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)154 / 160
History coverage224d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$17 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$20 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 +$21 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $411 +$55 +13%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$5 -45%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 +$38 +38%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$14 +36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$28 +27%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$26 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$26 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 16 $100 −$4 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $91 +$26 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $50 +$60 +121%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $50 +$72 +144%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 78¢ $101 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 38h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.07 · official $464.11 (match) · 276 history records