Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7D 0x7dee…db5a crypto 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,633 (+23%) realized +$1,633 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%60W / 72L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$41
14 days−$316
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,337
sports 0% −$19
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -45.6% -50.8% 33% 33% -38.4%
≤30d 47 -25.0% -32.1% 40% 38% +5.6%
≤90d 132 -20.9% -28.5% 45% 45% +7.5%
all 132 -20.9% -28.5% 45% 45% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 45% +7.5%
10% -35.3% 39% -2.8%
15% -41.6% 27% -12.2%
20% -47.3% 20% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$13 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,633
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 72
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage78d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$13 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $109 +$13 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $48 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $46 −$22 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $18 +$19 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$56 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 05 $198 +$353 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $147 +$94 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $93 +$76 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 05 $97 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $62 +$88 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 05 $40 +$48 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 14 $46 +$14 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $13 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $38 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $37 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $18 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $34 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $17 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $90 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $122 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $78 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $78 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records